See which Gungahlin, Belconnen and Canberra North schools are set to grow

Using the My School website, which provides data about NAPLAN results, attendance and socioeconomic background of schools, as well as a friend's experience helped the family choose a suburb.

"It had to be an area that we wanted to live in," Mr Coll said.

Majura Primary School parent Remy Coll discussed why his family chose to move to Canberra's north. Picture by Karleen Minney

"There are great schools on the south side, but you also have to want to live wherever that suburb is, so that was a driving factor as well."

The community surrounding a school was also a key factor and personal experience helped shape their school decision.

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Mr Coll said learning about others' experience with a school made it easier to integrate into a school community, where they already knew people.

Most of the students in Watson and some parts of Downer are in the enrolment priority areas for Majura Primary School.

"The parents do make friends with each other," Mr Coll said.

"The kids will ride on their bikes to school or down to the park and without fail every single time, we'll see some of their friends."

Across the next decade enrolments in government schools are expected to decrease, and the years of hundreds of new students entering the system each year are over.

The education directorate's enrolment predictions are usually not available to the public but have been revealed using freedom of information laws.

Demographic trends, birth rates and the actual location of infill or greenfield developments all change the numbers year to year.

Transportable infrastructure, changes to enrolment areas and which schools accept students from out-of-area are other ways the education directorate manages enrolments in ACT schools.

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An education directorate spokesperson said the government made "evidence-based and equitable decisions about ongoing investment in public education infrastructure for the whole ACT public school system".

READ MORE: Why these parents are choosing schools in Canberra's south

Most of the primary and combined schools in Gungahlin are expected to decrease in enrolments.

The highest loss is expected to be at Amaroo School which could have 338 fewer students in 2035.

Throsby Primary School, which first opened in 2022, is the only primary school in Gungahlin expected to grow.

The new high schools are also still in the growth phase, Shirley Smith and Aunty Agnes Shea are expected to see more than 300 and 200 additional students over 10 years respectively.

Inside a classroom at Shirley Smith High School at the start of 2024. Picture by Elesa Kurtz

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Both schools have a capacity of 800 students and should stay under capacity over the decade.

The education directorate treats the enrolment predictions for new schools or newly expanded schools with an additional level of caution, because of a lack of historical data.

The predictions which involve greenfield areas are "based on assumptions to a much greater degree", the FOI officer said.

Students speak about which high school subjects they are most looking forward to and what they think the biggest differences will be between primary and high school. Video by Keegan Carroll and Nieve Walton

"The projection results are more uncertain with lesser probabilistic confidence compared to established schools and thus need to be interpreted with greater caution," they said.

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Gungahlin College is also expected to continue to grow over the decade and will reach capacity by 2028 if more space is not found.

A second college in the Gungahlin region is expected to be completed by 2030, which will help alleviate this growth.

Most of the primary school enrolments in North Canberra are expected to remain steady.

Campbell Primary School, Ainslie School and Turner School are expected to have more than 80 students added to enrolments by 2035.

Both Campbell and Lyneham High School and Dickson College enrolments are expected to decrease.

There are expected to be enough new students entering government schools in Belconnen to keep primary enrolments steady.

Two primary schools on the outskirts of Belconnen are an exception, Fraser Primary School is expected to grow by 100 students over 10 years.

Strathnairn School is also expected to grow significantly, but this is mostly because the school will open enrolments for Year 3 and above in 2027.

Inside the new Belconnen school, Strathnairn School. Picture by Karleen Minney

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In 2020, Kingsford Smith School was on a very high growth trajectory but this is not expected to happen because the new Strathnairn School had changed the enrolment priority areas.

Despite the primary school enrolments staying steady in Belconnen and none of the schools reaching capacity, the government is working on a feasibility study for a new primary school co-located with the University of Canberra.

An education directorate spokesperson said this study was expected to be completed by 2028.

A team of Australian National University demographers helped to create the model which informs the directorate's enrolment predictions.

The education directorate uses an external consultancy that specialises in modelling to develop the projections.

"This collaborative development is intended to ensure a high level of integrity in the projection process, combined with access to professional expertise in specialist demographic techniques and knowledge," the FOI officer said.

The model tracks four-year-old children in an area, allocates them to a primary school and tracks them through high school and college, the FOI officer said.