(test2) Is the Minns government taking its emissions mandate seriously?

In a press release, the climate group projected the shortfall between legislated targets and expected greenhouse gas pollution was 6.6 million tonnes.

That is partly due to the proposal made by Yancoal and Glencore, Hunter Valley Operations (HVO) North and South.

The Minns government announced its coal industry outlook for 2025-2050 this month, ruling out new coal mines but not expansions to existing ones including the Hunter proposal.

Emissions requirements would be a condition of any project expansions, the government has said, but the Net Zero Commission has argued any coal production expansion is contrary to meeting the targets.

Nancy Chang, chief executive of the NSW Environmental Protection Agency said the proposal was "the largest coal mining proposal ever put forward in NSW."

"If the Premier is serious about his statement that the number one job of his government is to protect its citizens, then he is not fulfilling that duty by approving every single mine that comes across his desk," said Lock the Gate's NSW co-ordinator, Nic Clyde.

"The more time and energy we spend on these expansions, the less focus there is on preparing Hunter Valley coal mining communities for the inevitable transition."

As of March 2026 the NSW state government is considering 18 coal mine extension applications.

There are 39 operating coal mines in NSW, with many scheduled for closure before 2035. Coal-fired power is slated to phase out by 2040.

A large portion of the HVO extension sits within Muswellbrook shire, and as a result it expects to be where the closure of these mines and subsequent job losses will hit hardest.

Muswellbrook mayor Jeff Drayton said the shift from coal to renewables is less a transition and more of "industrial closure".

"By 2030 we will lose 50 to 55 per cent of all our mining. So our mining, we are more than half in Muswellbrook Shire by 2030... that's not really a transition... that's industrial closures," Cr Drayton said.

Cr Drayton said he was frustrated by continually getting the blame for emissions when the state government has been slow to roll out renewables aimed at offsetting the state hitting its climate targets.

"It is certainly a frustration of mine that I hear people all the time tell us what we have to do here in Muswellbrook Shire, without offering to put their hand up or or give us any help to get there," he said.

In November 2025, the Minns government tabled the Future Jobs and Investment Authority Bill 2025. It was designed to help transition the state's four main coal suppliers - Hunter, Central West, Illawarra and the North West regions - through the net zero

Critics argue the budget of $27.3 million over four years is nowhere near enough to get the job done.

"They just don't seem to see the urgency of it," said Justin Page, coordinator for the Hunter Jobs Alliance.

"What's coming in 2030 is a tipping point, with two major mines closing [Mount Arthur and Mangoola] and losing 2000 direct workers, the industry is not going to be able to sustain that," Mr Page said.

In comparison, the Western Australian government allocated $700 million solely the town of Collie in southwest WA after its two coal-fired power stations were slated for decommissioning.

The town has just under 10,000 residents.

The funding aims to shift the town away from dependence on the coal industry by attracting major projects and bringing new industry to the regional hub.

Similarly, the Victorian government introduced a $266 million transition package for the Latrobe Valley after the closure of the Hazelwood brown coal-fired power station in 2016.

The bill is in the NSW Parliament's lower house. If passed, it will create a legal mandate at a state level to require closing mines to provide transition support for their workforce.

Lock the Gate Alliance and Hunter Jobs Alliance have both called for the bill to be strengthened and receive a substantial increase in funding.

To combat the expected industry losses, the Minns and Albanese governments dedicated $60 million to opening the Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence at TAFE's campus in Tighes Hill.